There is a lament about politics in Kyrgyzstan: Every five to 10 years, the country tires of its increasingly repressive president and throws him out. From 2005 to 2020, this held true. But 2025 has come and gone with no revolution, as candidates loyal to President Sadyr Japarov won a dominant majority in last November’s elections.

As the nation of 7.4 million people has wavered between periods of mounting autocracy and flashes of revolution, many Western advocates and policymakers hoped that Kyrgyzstan could become the first Central Asian country to achieve a robust democracy. Now the question is whether Japarov, who became president after the country’s last uprising in 2020, has instead figured out how to more securely consolidate power.

Last month, Japarov fired the head of Kyrgyzstan’s security services, Kamchybek Tashiev—a longtime ally and the country’s second-most powerful politician. In an interview with the Kabar state news agency, Japarov said Tashiev’s removal protected society from “division,” alleging that Tashiev’s supporters were pushing for him to run against Japarov in next year’s presidential election.

Japarov has acted quickly to purge anyone associated with Tashiev from Kyrgyzstan’s power structure. Tashiev has laid low, but Japarov isn’t done yet: On March 16, authorities accused Tashiev and his family of a $45 million corruption scheme involving Kyrgyzstan’s state oil company, which could be the nail in his political coffin...

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